Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Russia intensifies military operations in Ukraine, escalating from current levels to include increased use of long-range missiles and drones. NATO member states respond with increased military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry like fighter jets. Diplomatic efforts falter, leading to a heightened risk of direct confrontation between Russia and the West. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia launches a significant new offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure like energy facilities or major cities, followed by NATO member states publicly confirming increased military support for Ukraine. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures and limited offensive actions. Diplomatic effo (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Russia intensifies military operations in Ukraine, escalating from current levels to include increased use of long-range missiles and drones. NATO member states respond with increased military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry like fighter jets. Diplomatic efforts falter, leading to a heightened risk of direct confrontation between Russia and the West. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia launches a significant new offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure like energy facilities or major cities, followed by NATO member states publicly confirming increased military support for Ukraine. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures and limited offensive actions. Diplomatic effo (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Russia intensifies military operations in Ukraine, escalating from current levels to include increased use of long-range missiles and drones. NATO member states respond with increased military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry like fighter jets. Diplomatic efforts falter, leading to a heightened risk of direct confrontation between Russia and the West. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia launches a significant new offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure like energy facilities or major cities, followed by NATO member states publicly confirming increased military support for Ukraine. * Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures and limited offensive actions. Diplomatic effo (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

European ambassadors shown foreign components from Russian missiles and drones used in 24 May attacks

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators