Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Energy bills for Power NI and Firmus customers will rise significantly in the coming weeks due to rising global energy prices. This escalation will be confirmed by a sharp increase in both suppliers' average daily gas and electricity price quotes, exceeding historical averages. The impact will be felt within 10-14 days, leading to increased consumer complaints and potential political pressure on the government for intervention. * Power NI and Firmus announce significant price hikes. * Significant increase in average daily gas and electricity prices compared to historical averages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The energy situation remains largely unchanged, with both suppliers maintaining their current pricing structure for Power NI and Firmus customers. Th (27% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Energy bills for Power NI and Firmus customers will rise significantly in the coming weeks due to rising global energy prices. This escalation will be confirmed by a sharp increase in both suppliers' average daily gas and electricity price quotes, exceeding historical averages. The impact will be felt within 10-14 days, leading to increased consumer complaints and potential political pressure on the government for intervention. * Power NI and Firmus announce significant price hikes. * Significant increase in average daily gas and electricity prices compared to historical averages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The energy situation remains largely unchanged, with both suppliers maintaining their current pricing structure for Power NI and Firmus customers. Th (53% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Energy bills for Power NI and Firmus customers will rise significantly in the coming weeks due to rising global energy prices. This escalation will be confirmed by a sharp increase in both suppliers' average daily gas and electricity price quotes, exceeding historical averages. The impact will be felt within 10-14 days, leading to increased consumer complaints and potential political pressure on the government for intervention. * Power NI and Firmus announce significant price hikes. * Significant increase in average daily gas and electricity prices compared to historical averages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The energy situation remains largely unchanged, with both suppliers maintaining their current pricing structure for Power NI and Firmus customers. Th (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Energy bills to go up for Power NI and Firmus customers

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators