Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's response to sanctions intensifies, escalating into direct military action against US/Allied vessels in Persian Gulf. This triggers retaliatory strikes on Iranian infrastructure by regional powers and international forces. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz becomes permanent, leading to a complete halt of oil exports from Iran. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, but global oil markets stabilize as alternative supply routes are established. Negotiations between Iran and major powers continue with a focus on easing tens (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's response to sanctions intensifies, escalating into direct military action against US/Allied vessels in Persian Gulf. This triggers retaliatory strikes on Iranian infrastructure by regional powers and international forces. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz becomes permanent, leading to a complete halt of oil exports from Iran. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, but global oil markets stabilize as alternative supply routes are established. Negotiations between Iran and major powers continue with a focus on easing tens (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's response to sanctions intensifies, escalating into direct military action against US/Allied vessels in Persian Gulf. This triggers retaliatory strikes on Iranian infrastructure by regional powers and international forces. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz becomes permanent, leading to a complete halt of oil exports from Iran. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, but global oil markets stabilize as alternative supply routes are established. Negotiations between Iran and major powers continue with a focus on easing tens (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Chevron CEO Wirth warns oil prices likely to rise as Iran war hits supplies

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators