S9/10Geopolitical

White House says Iran and US agreed to 60-day ceasefire extension, awaiting Trump's approval

White House says Iran and US agreed to 60-day ceasefire extension, awaiting Trump's approval US and Iranian negotiators have reached a deal for a 60-day ceasefire extension that would allow them time to negotiate a full end to the war on the Islamic Republic, but the deal must be approved by US President Donald Trump, the White House said. Iran's top leadership also has yet to give the final seal of approval. The announcement comes as the current ceasefire between the two sides came under pressure with the US launching multiple strikes on Bandar Abbas port and Iran retaliating by striking a US military base in Kuwait. The new deal may ease tensions as the two sides prepare to discuss thornier issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief. “What we have here is a ticket to a negotiation - a letter of intent - if you will - to negotiations on all core issues,” Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, wrote on X. “Get ready for painful negotiations that will feel like daily root canals and migraine headaches,” he added. Read more: White House says Iran and US agreed to 60-day ceasefire extension, awaiting Trump's approval

28 May 2026, 17:56 UTCSource: Middle East Eye

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation77% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased public statements by Iranian officials threatening further action and calling for retaliation against US military presence.
  • Reports of increased military activity near US bases in the Middle East, including heightened surveillance and troop deployments.
  • Confirmation of targeted attacks on oil infrastructure or US forces from credible sources.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo17% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased public statements by Iranian officials threatening further action and calling for retaliation against US military presence.
  • Reports of increased military activity near US bases in the Middle East, including heightened surveillance and troop deployments.
  • Confirmation of targeted attacks on oil infrastructure or US forces from credible sources.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation6% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased public statements by Iranian officials threatening further action and calling for retaliation against US military presence.
  • Reports of increased military activity near US bases in the Middle East, including heightened surveillance and troop deployments.
  • Confirmation of targeted attacks on oil infrastructure or US forces from credible sources.
Horizon: 10–20 days