Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US Treasury yields surge as tensions rise between Iran and the West. This triggers a global sell-off in bonds, impacting international markets heavily. Political instability in the Middle East could escalate further, leading to increased military deployments and heightened risk aversion. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding military action; Significant spike in US-Iran sanctions; A major escalation of hostilities in the region (e.g., attacks on civilian infrastructure). * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement to end the conflict between Iran and the West is reached, leading to a global market rally in bonds and equities. Oil prices stabilize as supply chains resume normal operation. This positive momentum could lead to i (69% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US Treasury yields surge as tensions rise between Iran and the West. This triggers a global sell-off in bonds, impacting international markets heavily. Political instability in the Middle East could escalate further, leading to increased military deployments and heightened risk aversion. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding military action; Significant spike in US-Iran sanctions; A major escalation of hostilities in the region (e.g., attacks on civilian infrastructure). * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement to end the conflict between Iran and the West is reached, leading to a global market rally in bonds and equities. Oil prices stabilize as supply chains resume normal operation. This positive momentum could lead to i (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US Treasury yields surge as tensions rise between Iran and the West. This triggers a global sell-off in bonds, impacting international markets heavily. Political instability in the Middle East could escalate further, leading to increased military deployments and heightened risk aversion. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding military action; Significant spike in US-Iran sanctions; A major escalation of hostilities in the region (e.g., attacks on civilian infrastructure). * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement to end the conflict between Iran and the West is reached, leading to a global market rally in bonds and equities. Oil prices stabilize as supply chains resume normal operation. This positive momentum could lead to i (8% model probability, not a guarantee)