Axelrod's Oracle
S8/10Geopolitical

Middle East and North Africa

Promo Image: Children walk around an Iranian missile after it fell near Qamishli International Airport, near the Turkish border in the Qamishli district of al-Hasaka, Syria, on March 4, 2026, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. (Amjad Kurdo/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

20 Mar 2026, 20:05 UTCSource: Stratfor

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 78% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Iran confirms missile strikes on Israel
  • ◆allied targets within 72 hours of the initial escalation. The US condemns Iran's actions, issuing sanctions against Iranian entities.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 16% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Iran confirms missile strikes on Israel
  • ◆allied targets within 72 hours of the initial escalation. The US condemns Iran's actions, issuing sanctions against Iranian entities.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Iran confirms missile strikes on Israel
  • ◆allied targets within 72 hours of the initial escalation. The US condemns Iran's actions, issuing sanctions against Iranian entities.
Horizon: 7–30 days