S6/10Geopolitical
Militia-like movements appear in Chad amid surge in intercommunal violence
In Chad, intercommunal violence has dramatically risen, with authorities flagging five different incidents just last month, with over 300 killed in just two years. The UN has warned that violence is escalating across the entire Lake Chad basin, with 5,700 people killed since last November. Violence has also forced thousands to leave. FRANCE 24's Harold Girard tells us more
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 43% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days