S8/10Geopolitical
100 days of the US–Israel war on Iran
One hundred days in, the US–Israel–Iran conflict remains a bloody stalemate with mounting loss of civilian lives.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 74% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased US military presence in the region confirmed by satellite imagery and statements from US officials. A formal declaration of war between Iran and Israel by one or both countries. Escalation of airstrikes with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Horizon: 10–30 days
B
Status quo— 19% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased US military presence in the region confirmed by satellite imagery and statements from US officials. A formal declaration of war between Iran and Israel by one or both countries. Escalation of airstrikes with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Horizon: 10–30 days
C
De-escalation— 7% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased US military presence in the region confirmed by satellite imagery and statements from US officials. A formal declaration of war between Iran and Israel by one or both countries. Escalation of airstrikes with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Horizon: 10–30 days