S9/10Geopolitical
Wang Yi: Blockade of Strait of Hormuz not in common interests
China's top diplomat Wang Yi on Monday said that blocking the Strait of Hormuz would not serve the common interests of the international community, stressing that a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire through political and diplomatic means is the fundamental way forward to resolve regional tensions.
13 Apr 2026, 12:32 UTCSource: CGTN World
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 75% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian Revolutionary Guard issuing a public statement threatening Strait of Hormuz blockades, increased military activity near the strait (e.g., drone deployments), escalation of diplomatic pressure from Iran's leadership against US
- ◆led coalition.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14
Horizon: 14–28 days
B
Status quo— 18% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian Revolutionary Guard issuing a public statement threatening Strait of Hormuz blockades, increased military activity near the strait (e.g., drone deployments), escalation of diplomatic pressure from Iran's leadership against US
- ◆led coalition.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14
Horizon: 14–28 days
C
De-escalation— 7% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian Revolutionary Guard issuing a public statement threatening Strait of Hormuz blockades, increased military activity near the strait (e.g., drone deployments), escalation of diplomatic pressure from Iran's leadership against US
- ◆led coalition.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14
Horizon: 14–28 days