Scenario A: Эскалация?

Question

Accepted Answer

Сценарии Scenario A (Escalation) — 38% Iran announces retaliatory strikes against US military targets in the Gulf after the death of its Supreme Leader. The strikes target key infrastructure and facilities, including naval vessels and airbases. Tensions rise as both sides accuse each other of provocation. The situation escalates further with increased rhetoric from political leaders on both sides. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 47% Iran announces the death of its Supreme Leader wi (38% model probability, not a guarantee)