S6/10Military
Russian troops approach second line of Ukrainian defense on way to Orekhov — official
According to Igor Kimakovsky, the Russian fighters have closely approached the Ukrainian defense line near the Verkhyaya Tersa settlement
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days