S8/10Geopolitical
IEA chief warns Strait of Hormuz crisis threatens global energy security
Fatih Birol says 'oil security is still a critical issue' and world should be 'worried' if situation does not improve.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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