S9/10Geopolitical
War in Iran: Q&A with RAND Experts
The U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran have sent shockwaves across the region and beyond. RAND experts discuss the dynamics within Iran, regional and global implications, the prospects for diplomacy, and more.
10 Mar 2026, 06:30 UTCSource: RAND
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 85% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased activity of proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria, confirmed Iranian missile strikes on Israeli targets, escalation of cyberattacks against US and Israeli infrastructure, significant increase in regional tensions and military deployments.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 11% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased activity of proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria, confirmed Iranian missile strikes on Israeli targets, escalation of cyberattacks against US and Israeli infrastructure, significant increase in regional tensions and military deployments.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased activity of proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria, confirmed Iranian missile strikes on Israeli targets, escalation of cyberattacks against US and Israeli infrastructure, significant increase in regional tensions and military deployments.
Horizon: 7–14 days