S8/10Geopolitical

Trump says making ‘final determination’ on Iran deal

Trump says making ‘final determination’ on Iran deal US President Donald Trump says he is preparing to make a final decision on a potential agreement with Iran as talks reach a critical stage. In a post on social media, Trump said he would meet in the Situation Room to decide whether to proceed with the deal. “I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination,” he wrote, reiterating that any agreement must ensure Iran never obtains nuclear weapons and must include the reopening of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said Iran “will complete the immediate removal” of mines in the waterway and indicated the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, allowing oil shipments to resume. It remains unclear whether Iran has accepted those terms or whether any easing of restrictions has already taken place. The US president also said Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile “will be unearthed by the United States... in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED.” Addressing reports that Tehran has sought financial compensation, Trump said “no money will be exchanged, until further notice.” He added that only “items, of far less importance, have been agreed to,” underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the negotiations.

29 May 2026, 15:18 UTCSource: Middle East Eye

Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).

⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation66% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, US military deployments in the region, and reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its neighbors.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days
B
Status quo25% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, US military deployments in the region, and reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its neighbors.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days
C
De-escalation9% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, US military deployments in the region, and reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its neighbors.
  • Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–21 days