Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Russia's parallel imports may escalate further if sanctions or trade restrictions are tightened by Western nations. This escalation could lead to increased tension between Russia and its international trading partners, potentially leading to retaliatory measures like import bans on specific goods from Russia. Confirmation indicators include: (1) A significant increase in the number of countries imposing new sanctions on Russian imports; (2) Public statements by Western governments explicitly stating a move towards stricter trade controls. Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Parallel imports remain stable at around $1.5 billion per month, with minimal changes in trading patterns or government regulations. Confirmation indicators include: (1) No significant change in the volume of parallel imports; (2) Con (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Russia's parallel imports may escalate further if sanctions or trade restrictions are tightened by Western nations. This escalation could lead to increased tension between Russia and its international trading partners, potentially leading to retaliatory measures like import bans on specific goods from Russia. Confirmation indicators include: (1) A significant increase in the number of countries imposing new sanctions on Russian imports; (2) Public statements by Western governments explicitly stating a move towards stricter trade controls. Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Parallel imports remain stable at around $1.5 billion per month, with minimal changes in trading patterns or government regulations. Confirmation indicators include: (1) No significant change in the volume of parallel imports; (2) Con (55% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Russia's parallel imports may escalate further if sanctions or trade restrictions are tightened by Western nations. This escalation could lead to increased tension between Russia and its international trading partners, potentially leading to retaliatory measures like import bans on specific goods from Russia. Confirmation indicators include: (1) A significant increase in the number of countries imposing new sanctions on Russian imports; (2) Public statements by Western governments explicitly stating a move towards stricter trade controls. Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Parallel imports remain stable at around $1.5 billion per month, with minimal changes in trading patterns or government regulations. Confirmation indicators include: (1) No significant change in the volume of parallel imports; (2) Con (20% model probability, not a guarantee)