S6/10Social
Russia waits for OPCW to react to Kiev’s use of toxic chemicals — permanent representative
For instance, Russia informed the organization about the discovery of smoke grenades with chloropicrin at Ukraine’s positions in the DPR, as well as about a Ukrainian drone attack carried out with improvised munitions containing the same substance on a school building in the DPR
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 34% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days