S8/10Geopolitical
Optimistic tone of Macron's visit doesn't hide precariousness of Syria's security
At least 18 people have been wounded after a bomb went off near the Four Seasons in Damascus, the attack targeting the hotel where French president was staying, but had already left. A year after al-Sharaa's visit to Paris, the two leaders are eager to boost economic ties.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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