Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: India's rejection of the EAEU free trade deal triggers diplomatic tensions with Russia. This leads to a temporary suspension of several joint ventures in the energy sector, impacting both nations' economic cooperation. * Confirmation Indicators: India publicly announces its withdrawal from the agreement and initiates an investigation into Russian business practices within their borders. * Time Horizon: 2 weeks to 1 month Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU free trade deal is implemented as originally planned, with India gradually integrating its economy into the agreement. This leads to increased trade and investment flows between India and the EAEU member states. * Confirmation Indicators: Trade data reveals a steady increase in import/export volumes between India and Russia, par (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: India's rejection of the EAEU free trade deal triggers diplomatic tensions with Russia. This leads to a temporary suspension of several joint ventures in the energy sector, impacting both nations' economic cooperation. * Confirmation Indicators: India publicly announces its withdrawal from the agreement and initiates an investigation into Russian business practices within their borders. * Time Horizon: 2 weeks to 1 month Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU free trade deal is implemented as originally planned, with India gradually integrating its economy into the agreement. This leads to increased trade and investment flows between India and the EAEU member states. * Confirmation Indicators: Trade data reveals a steady increase in import/export volumes between India and Russia, par (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: India's rejection of the EAEU free trade deal triggers diplomatic tensions with Russia. This leads to a temporary suspension of several joint ventures in the energy sector, impacting both nations' economic cooperation. * Confirmation Indicators: India publicly announces its withdrawal from the agreement and initiates an investigation into Russian business practices within their borders. * Time Horizon: 2 weeks to 1 month Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU free trade deal is implemented as originally planned, with India gradually integrating its economy into the agreement. This leads to increased trade and investment flows between India and the EAEU member states. * Confirmation Indicators: Trade data reveals a steady increase in import/export volumes between India and Russia, par (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

India-EAEU free trade deal to be temporary, limited at first stage — Russian minister

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators