Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Gangs' control over key areas in Haiti expands, leading to increased violence and displacement. This triggers further UN intervention with potential for renewed conflict between gangs and security forces. Increased international pressure on Haitian government to address the crisis. * Confirmation Indicators: Reports of significant territorial gains by gangs within 2 weeks, followed by a surge in violent clashes between gangs and security forces within 4 weeks. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN continues to provide humanitarian aid while engaging in diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate the situation. Haitian government struggles to maintain control, leading to a continued cycle of violence and instability. * Confirmation Indicators: UN reports on human (69% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Gangs' control over key areas in Haiti expands, leading to increased violence and displacement. This triggers further UN intervention with potential for renewed conflict between gangs and security forces. Increased international pressure on Haitian government to address the crisis. * Confirmation Indicators: Reports of significant territorial gains by gangs within 2 weeks, followed by a surge in violent clashes between gangs and security forces within 4 weeks. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN continues to provide humanitarian aid while engaging in diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate the situation. Haitian government struggles to maintain control, leading to a continued cycle of violence and instability. * Confirmation Indicators: UN reports on human (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Gangs' control over key areas in Haiti expands, leading to increased violence and displacement. This triggers further UN intervention with potential for renewed conflict between gangs and security forces. Increased international pressure on Haitian government to address the crisis. * Confirmation Indicators: Reports of significant territorial gains by gangs within 2 weeks, followed by a surge in violent clashes between gangs and security forces within 4 weeks. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN continues to provide humanitarian aid while engaging in diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate the situation. Haitian government struggles to maintain control, leading to a continued cycle of violence and instability. * Confirmation Indicators: UN reports on human (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Haitian children ‘paying the highest price’ amid surge in gang recruitment

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators