Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Israel strikes southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital Beirut

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators