Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

China restricts trading with specific US rare earth companies, triggering retaliatory measures from Washington. This leads to heightened tensions between the two nations, potentially escalating into a trade war. Confirmation indicators: US imposes sanctions on Chinese officials involved in export controls and China announces further restrictions on US-based businesses operating in sensitive sectors like technology or aerospace. Time horizo (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

China restricts trading with specific US rare earth companies, triggering retaliatory measures from Washington. This leads to heightened tensions between the two nations, potentially escalating into a trade war. Confirmation indicators: US imposes sanctions on Chinese officials involved in export controls and China announces further restrictions on US-based businesses operating in sensitive sectors like technology or aerospace. Time horizo (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

China restricts trading with specific US rare earth companies, triggering retaliatory measures from Washington. This leads to heightened tensions between the two nations, potentially escalating into a trade war. Confirmation indicators: US imposes sanctions on Chinese officials involved in export controls and China announces further restrictions on US-based businesses operating in sensitive sectors like technology or aerospace. Time horizo (18% model probability, not a guarantee)