S9/10Geopolitical
Khamenei successor has yet to be seen as ex-ayatollah's funeral comes to a close
US and Iran have resumed strikes, threatening a return to full-scale war. The fighting also came with Iran preparing to bury Khamenei, who was killed alongside close family members on the first day of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic on February 28. The last of a marathon six days of funeral ceremonies will be closely watched for signs of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has yet to appear in public since being appointed. FRANCE 24's Angela Diffley tells us more.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 77% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days