Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's approval of the deal is delayed due to internal political pressure from hardliners in the U.S. This triggers a renewed escalation of tensions with Iran, including increased military exercises and rhetoric by both sides. * Confirmation indicators: A public statement from Trump expressing concerns about the agreement, followed by a series of joint military drills between the U.S. and Israel near Iranian borders within 5 days. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations continue with both sides maintaining a cautious approach, focusing on achieving tangible progress towards a long-term solution for the nuclear program. The ceasefire extension is maintained and a framework agreement is reached within the next 60 days. * Confirmation indicators: The U.S. an (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's approval of the deal is delayed due to internal political pressure from hardliners in the U.S. This triggers a renewed escalation of tensions with Iran, including increased military exercises and rhetoric by both sides. * Confirmation indicators: A public statement from Trump expressing concerns about the agreement, followed by a series of joint military drills between the U.S. and Israel near Iranian borders within 5 days. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations continue with both sides maintaining a cautious approach, focusing on achieving tangible progress towards a long-term solution for the nuclear program. The ceasefire extension is maintained and a framework agreement is reached within the next 60 days. * Confirmation indicators: The U.S. an (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's approval of the deal is delayed due to internal political pressure from hardliners in the U.S. This triggers a renewed escalation of tensions with Iran, including increased military exercises and rhetoric by both sides. * Confirmation indicators: A public statement from Trump expressing concerns about the agreement, followed by a series of joint military drills between the U.S. and Israel near Iranian borders within 5 days. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations continue with both sides maintaining a cautious approach, focusing on achieving tangible progress towards a long-term solution for the nuclear program. The ceasefire extension is maintained and a framework agreement is reached within the next 60 days. * Confirmation indicators: The U.S. an (12% model probability, not a guarantee)