Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates with long-range artillery strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, including energy facilities and military hubs. This triggers NATO to deploy enhanced security measures along its eastern flank, leading to heightened tensions between Russia and the West. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely in the near future. * Increased Russian rhetoric about "unacceptable" Ukrainian resistance and demands for increased military support from allies. * NATO member states begin deploying Patriot missile defense systems to Eastern European countries bordering Russia. * A coordinated cyberattack on critical infrastructure by Russia or a proxy state targets Ukraine's power grid, causing widespread blackouts across the country. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates with long-range artillery strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, including energy facilities and military hubs. This triggers NATO to deploy enhanced security measures along its eastern flank, leading to heightened tensions between Russia and the West. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely in the near future. * Increased Russian rhetoric about "unacceptable" Ukrainian resistance and demands for increased military support from allies. * NATO member states begin deploying Patriot missile defense systems to Eastern European countries bordering Russia. * A coordinated cyberattack on critical infrastructure by Russia or a proxy state targets Ukraine's power grid, causing widespread blackouts across the country. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates with long-range artillery strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, including energy facilities and military hubs. This triggers NATO to deploy enhanced security measures along its eastern flank, leading to heightened tensions between Russia and the West. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely in the near future. * Increased Russian rhetoric about "unacceptable" Ukrainian resistance and demands for increased military support from allies. * NATO member states begin deploying Patriot missile defense systems to Eastern European countries bordering Russia. * A coordinated cyberattack on critical infrastructure by Russia or a proxy state targets Ukraine's power grid, causing widespread blackouts across the country. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Massive Russian strike on Kyiv: ‘I hope my friends are alive’

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators