S8/10Geopolitical
Some Iranian missiles fired at US bases in Middle East reached targets — WSJ
US officials claimed the attacks had caused minor damage and no casualties
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 65% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days