Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia escalates its actions in Ukraine by deploying heavier weaponry, potentially including tactical nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. This triggers a response from NATO and Western allies, leading to increased military aid for Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia. Tensions escalate with diplomatic efforts failing, possibly resulting in direct confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. * Increased deployment of Russian heavy weaponry near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements by Russian officials indicating a willingness to use nuclear weapons. * NATO member states publicly committing to increased military support for Ukraine within the next week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The Security Council remains in deadlock, with Russia (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia escalates its actions in Ukraine by deploying heavier weaponry, potentially including tactical nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. This triggers a response from NATO and Western allies, leading to increased military aid for Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia. Tensions escalate with diplomatic efforts failing, possibly resulting in direct confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. * Increased deployment of Russian heavy weaponry near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements by Russian officials indicating a willingness to use nuclear weapons. * NATO member states publicly committing to increased military support for Ukraine within the next week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The Security Council remains in deadlock, with Russia (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia escalates its actions in Ukraine by deploying heavier weaponry, potentially including tactical nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. This triggers a response from NATO and Western allies, leading to increased military aid for Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia. Tensions escalate with diplomatic efforts failing, possibly resulting in direct confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. * Increased deployment of Russian heavy weaponry near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements by Russian officials indicating a willingness to use nuclear weapons. * NATO member states publicly committing to increased military support for Ukraine within the next week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The Security Council remains in deadlock, with Russia (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Security Council LIVE: Human cost of Ukraine war, a pattern that ‘defies’ international law, says senior UN aid official

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators