S8/10Geopolitical
Record El Niño threatens to unleash floods across East Africa and Asia
Aid groups warn a record-strength El Niño could unleash flooding and hunger from Somalia to Pakistan.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 57% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days