Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's FAB strike leads to increased Russian offensive in Donetsk region. Ukraine retaliates with artillery strikes on Russian positions, escalating into a larger-scale conflict. This triggers NATO member states to increase military aid to Ukraine, potentially leading to further escalation and heightened tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of active fighting in Donetsk and surrounding areas, Ukrainian military officials expressing strong dissatisfaction with the current level of support from allies, a noticeable increase in Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and troop movements. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident is reported but quickly devolves into diplomatic discussions between Russia an (77% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's FAB strike leads to increased Russian offensive in Donetsk region. Ukraine retaliates with artillery strikes on Russian positions, escalating into a larger-scale conflict. This triggers NATO member states to increase military aid to Ukraine, potentially leading to further escalation and heightened tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of active fighting in Donetsk and surrounding areas, Ukrainian military officials expressing strong dissatisfaction with the current level of support from allies, a noticeable increase in Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and troop movements. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident is reported but quickly devolves into diplomatic discussions between Russia an (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's FAB strike leads to increased Russian offensive in Donetsk region. Ukraine retaliates with artillery strikes on Russian positions, escalating into a larger-scale conflict. This triggers NATO member states to increase military aid to Ukraine, potentially leading to further escalation and heightened tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of active fighting in Donetsk and surrounding areas, Ukrainian military officials expressing strong dissatisfaction with the current level of support from allies, a noticeable increase in Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and troop movements. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident is reported but quickly devolves into diplomatic discussions between Russia an (6% model probability, not a guarantee)