geopolitical · geopolitical

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The August Coup by Robert Service review – the drink-soaked collapse of the Soviet Union

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This brilliant account of attempts by the old guard to take back control captures the ludicrousness of it all beautifully Marxist-Leninist rule in Russia lasted 74 years, and in August 1991 it effectively collapsed in just three days: clear evidence of how hollowed out it had become. In the period that followed, Russia tried parliamentary democracy and unalloyed capitalism, then sank back into autocracy. Now it’s struggling under a wholly unnecessary war against its neighbour and former possession, Ukraine. Why did the system of Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev vanish so fast, without a fight? Because that’s how regimes fall in Russia: look at tsarism in 1917. (It almost happened again in June 2023, when the warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s men marched on Moscow largely unopposed; Vladimir Putin might have gone the way of Nicholas II had he not made some pretty wholesale promises to Prigozhin, then allegedly blown him up two months later.) Continue reading...

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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Odd Lots: Tungsten Market Is Warning of Upcoming War (Podcast)

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Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling tells us you can think of tungsten mining as “a century old prediction market for war.” As he writes in a recent piece, tungsten is “a super-element that can determine the fate of nations.” While the commercial market for tungsten is fairly small, it can be crucial in war manufacturing, due to its high density and melting point. He learned more about tungsten mining and its increasing geopolitical necessity, during a visit to Australia’s Dolphin Mine, w

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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How to Stop China from Freeriding on American AI

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The release of the Chinese open-weight AI model Kimi K3 has compressed a year’s worth of unresolved AI policy debate into a single news cycle. On July 21, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened sanctions against Chinese labs found to have built their models on “theft,” reporting that the government is “finding watermarks of our U.S. large language models on many of the Chinese models.” The following day, White House science advisor Michael Kratsios clarified that the Chinese AI lab behind K3, Moonshot AI, had built a sophisticated platform to copy Anthropic’s Fable model while evading detection.Industry has been vocal about The post How to Stop China from Freeriding on American AI appeared first on War on the Rocks .

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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Refugee Convention at 75: Britain owes Palestine an answer

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Refugee Convention at 75: Britain owes Palestine an answer Submitted by Victor Kattan on Wed, 07/29/2026 - 16:39 Ten months after a 400-page legal petition demanded an apology for the Balfour Declaration and its aftermath, Downing Street has said nothing A protester holds a placard during the Nakba 78 march in London, on 16 May 2026 (Loredana Sangiuliano/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect) Off Tuesday 28 July marked 75 years since the 1951 Refugee Convention was adopted at a United Nations conference in Geneva, with Britain among the states that negotiated and shaped it. The anniversary raises a question for the British government: whether it has ever confronted its role in creating the world's longest-standing refugee crisis . The occasion carries an uncomfortable irony. That same convention ultimately left Palestinian refugees - the population whose displacement was shaped in significant part by British policy - outside its ordinary protection through a separate legal regime. I have spent a large part of my career studying how international law shaped Palestine, from the origins of the conflict to the rights of its refugees. One principle runs through all of it: legal obligations do not lapse because they become inconvenient. This is at the heart of the Britain Owes Palestine petition, a 400-page legal submission I co-authored, which argues that Britain acted unlawfully in Palestine between 1917 and 1948, and that the UK now has a duty to formally acknowledge and apologise for that record. Through the Balfour Declaration , Britain promised to support a national home for one people on land inhabited by another, without the consent of the majority who lived there. For three decades, it governed under irreconcilable obligations, entrenching division and suppressing Palestinian self-government - at times through emergency powers that made collective punishment lawful in name while closing the courts to its victims. In 1948, Britain withdrew from the instability that its own policies had produced, leaving the population without protection. What followed was the Nakba - the "catastrophe" - in which more than 750,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes. Today, those refugees and their descendants number in the millions. A 'temporary' exception The Refugee Convention established a universal framework for refugee protection, overseen by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ). However, Palestinians were carved out. Because they already received assistance from the UN Relief and Works Agency ( UNRWA ), Article 1D of the convention excluded them from its scope while that assistance continued. It was conceived as a temporary arrangement, pending a political solution that was assumed to be imminent. The refugees whose displacement is most directly tied to British policy are also those least protected by the regime Britain helped create Seventy-five years later, that "temporary" arrangement still defines Palestinian refugeehood. Unrwa provides vital services, but it has no mandate to pursue the durable solutions - voluntary repatriation, local integration, resettlement - that UNHCR offers other refugee populations. As the arrangement never ended, generations of Palestinian refugees have gone without the protections that everyone else is guaranteed. The refugees whose displacement is most directly tied to British policy are also those least protected by the regime Britain helped create. This unresolved legal anomaly is one reason the petition that is now before the government matters. It asks for a search of unreleased archives, a full public response, an acknowledgement of wrongful acts, an official apology in parliament and serious consideration of reparations. Months of silence A cross-party coalition of 45 MPs and peers has urged the prime minister to respond. Some 10 months after its submission, and despite Andy Burnham replacing Keir Starmer as prime minister this month, the government has said nothing. That silence carries both legal and moral costs. Britain often invokes the Refugee Convention and international law to criticise other states and defend its own record. Yet the authority of law depends on consistent application, including to oneself. 'Gaza is a direct result of Balfour': Palestinians petition UK for reparations over historic crimes Read More » Britain cannot credibly champion refugee protection while refusing to confront its role in creating a refugee population excluded from the very regime it helped build. A state confident enough to examine its own record honestly is a state whose word on international law carries weight. Acknowledging wrongdoing can take many forms: an apology in parliament and investment in teaching a history that remains barely covered in British schools. The precedents exist: Britain has acknowledged and settled claims for colonial-era wrongs before, notably in the 2013 settlement with Kenyan victims of abuses committed during the Mau Mau uprising. The Refugee Convention was born of the conviction that displacement demands responsibility. The petition asks nothing more than Britain applying its own principles consistently. Seventy-five years after the Refugee Convention was adopted, Britain owes Palestine an answer. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. Refugees As the Refugee Convention turns 75, Britain owes Palestine an answer Opinion Palestinian refugees were carved out of the 1951 convention - and the government has yet to answer a petition seeking an apology and reparations Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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Morning update

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Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are the latest developments: US President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran will begin Monday after he decided to hold off on new strikes against the Islamic Republic to pursue a deal. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported an explosion near a tanker 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's port city of Khasab. The master of the vessel indicated hearing an explosion in close proximity to the vessel, according to UKMTO. The tanker and its crew were reported safe. Spokesperson for Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee, Hassan Qashqavi, said that Tehran is close to reaching an agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. He also confirmed that the country's mediators were seeking to revive the Memorandum of Understanding with Washington. Israeli forces carried out what state media described as "large bombing" operations across southern Lebanon, causing loud reverberating explosions. In the towns of Yaroun, Haroun and Bint Jbeil, Israel also reportedly dropped phosphorus bombs, resulting in large fires in the areas' olive and pine groves. An earthquake measuring magnitude 5.6 struck 38 km north of Egypt's Suez early on Monday, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) said. The Egyptian Red Crescent indicated that ​its emergency response plan in ​the governorates where the quake was felt has been activated.

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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Former Hong Kong prison officer jailed for 3 years over brutal attack on inmate

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A former Hong Kong prison officer has been sentenced to three years in jail for severely wounding an inmate by repeatedly thrusting a stick into the victim’s rectum after the defendant was sprinkled with baby powder during a game of bingo. District Court Judge Frankie Yiu Fun-che on Monday handed down the punishment to Tam Lik-chung, an ex-assistant officer of the Correctional Services Department, whom he said had committed “a very serious” crime by leading the assault and instructing other...

14 days ago

geopolitical · geopolitical

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Cuba plunged into darkness again as power grid collapses

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Cuba’s power grid failed on Sunday, causing another nationwide blackout, a state utility said in a social media post. As the lights suddenly turned off across Havana, residents who were sat outside to get some respite from the summer heat audibly groaned en masse. Cuba has been suffering rolling power cuts due to ageing equipment and a US energy embargo that halted regular deliveries of fuel for power stations. State-run UNE said there was a “total disconnection” of the national electricity...

14 days ago
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