Catalogue
Scenario archive
Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.
Why Putin Will Escalate
The coming months will mark the most dangerous phase of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
August 6, 2026
What India’s Operationalization of Integrated Battle Groups Means for Pakistan
Since the inception of the IBGs, they have been framed as formations to launch offensive operations against Pakistan under the nuclear overhang. Now they are finally a reality.
August 6, 2026
Pakistan Adopts Wait-and-Watch Approach as US and Iran Return to Hostilities
Pakistan continues to view the Islamabad MoU that it facilitated as the most viable framework for de-escalation.
August 6, 2026
The EU’s Contradictory Narratives on China
Both sides are trying to sustain trade talks and practical cooperation, but the EU’s new security definition of China may complicate this progress.
August 6, 2026
A Conversation With Mahabat Sadyrbek About the Kyrgyz Language
“When a language becomes accessible, it becomes visible. And when it becomes visible, it becomes part of international scholarship and global dialogue."
August 6, 2026
China, the US, and Nuclear Energy Geopolitics in Southeast Asia
Nuclear reactor exports are becoming an increasingly important arena of strategic competition.
August 6, 2026
Beyond the South China Sea: 4 Other Maritime Flashpoints in East Asia
These disputes could reshape the geopolitical order in East Asia – or even spark a war.
August 6, 2026
Australia Updates Travel Warning For Laos After Announcement of Methanol Poisoning Charges
Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that she was “deeply frustrated and bitterly disappointed" at the leniency of the charges announced on Friday.
August 6, 2026
ASEAN Foreign Ministers Convene Meeting Under the Shadow of Iran War, Regional Crises
The bloc's foreign ministers are set to call for "the restoration of the safe, unimpeded, and continuous transit passage of vessels and aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz.”
August 6, 2026
How China Is Aiding Kazakh Efforts to Become Hyper Modern
As Kazakhstan pushes forward to become a leading tech hub in the region, China continues to prove itself a crucial partner.
August 6, 2026
‘There Is Zero Accountability’: India’s ‘Cockroaches’ Question Modi and a Broken System
The Cockroach Janata Party is leading a youth-heavy protest movement that embodies the public anger with the BJP.
August 6, 2026
China’s Live-Fire Drill Near Okinotorishima Tests Japan’s Maritime Nerves
The exercise highlights growing China-Russia naval interoperability while exposing competing interpretations of maritime law.
August 6, 2026
Does Myanmar Still Have One Government to Recognize?
Much of the world still views Myanmar through a narrow diplomatic lens that cannot encompass the full political complexity of its conflict.
August 6, 2026
Transnational Repression, Organized Crime, and Conflict in Southeast Asia
A conversation with Phil Robertson, a Bangkok-based human rights advocate.
August 6, 2026
Amnesty: Deadly Pakistan Air Strikes on Kabul Drug Rehab Center a Possible War Crime
The human rights organization’s new report found “no evidence of Pakistan’s claims” that the site hit on March 16 was a military target.
August 6, 2026
Beyond a ‘Non-Red’ Supply Chain, Taiwan Should Export a Drone Ecosystem
To build a real “drone shield,” Taiwan cannot merely export hardware or components.
August 6, 2026
How South Korea’s Africa Pledges Are Faring on the Ground
In western Uganda, a project funded by the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) serves as a test case for what South Korea can offer the continent.
August 6, 2026
Indian Army’s Integrated Battle Groups Are Crystallizing ‘Cold Start’ Doctrine
Given the uncertainty in the region's escalation ladder, IBGs may be the answer if the need for a quick ground retort were to arise.
August 6, 2026
How Can Lebanon’s Partners Help Strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces?
The Lebanese state’s lack of effective sovereignty is a crucial problem in efforts to negotiate with Israel and disarm Hizballah. In response to intensified fighting between Israel and Hizballah, the United States began hosting talks between Israel and the Lebanese government in April. However, fighting has continued, and Hizballah recently rejected a proposed ceasefire deal.In 2025, in a historic move, the Lebanese government made plans for the Lebanese Armed Forces to disarm Hizballah. However, the military made slow progress, partly due to fears that more aggressive moves might splinter the Lebanese forces. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks have killed dozens of members The post How Can Lebanon’s Partners Help Strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces? appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026
Cascading Failure: The Spanish Navy’s Reserve Squadron and the Tragedy of Unpreparedness
It is in long periods of peace that victories and defeats are prepared. Peace is the period for men of government, just as war is for men of action. Without the calm preparation carried out by the former, the courage and energy of the latter are of no use. — Captain First Class Ramón Auñón y Villalón, 1885.The Spanish-American War is widely remembered as a moment of triumph for the United States and a disaster for Spain. The war began in 1898 after Spain. The war began in 1898 after Spain’s brutal effort to suppress Cuba’s independence revolt, American outrage The post Cascading Failure: The Spanish Navy’s Reserve Squadron and the Tragedy of Unpreparedness appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026
Dusting a Dirt Road: How The United States Can Break the Cycle of Failing Military Infrastructure
Winter Storm Uri ripped through Texas in January 2021. The frigid temperatures froze pipes, which then burst and caused flooding in aging barracks at Fort Hood, many of which were overdue for renovations and had vulnerable mechanical and utility systems. The burst pipes, damaged sprinkler systems, and frozen heating, ventilation, and air conditioning coils affected over 30 barracks, forcing soldiers to relocate and causing nearly $50 million in damage.According to the Department of Defense’s reporting, the United States owns and operates more than 700,000 facilities across nearly 5,000 sites at home and abroad. Much of this infrastructure is aging. Nearly The post Dusting a Dirt Road: How The United States Can Break the Cycle of Failing Military Infrastructure appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026
The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio
Washington is littered with the corpses of grand plans to restore the Merchant Marine. The Trump administration’s Maritime Action Plan is the latest attempt, and to its credit, the most comprehensive since World War II.The plan is the government’s blueprint to resurrect America’s commercial shipping and domestic shipbuilding industry. The goal is straightforward: build enough merchant ships and train enough civilian mariners to sustain the military through war, while cutting reliance on foreign supply chains in peace. With a $1.5 billion Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones, and fees on foreign-built vessels, it treats over a half-century of decline The post The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026
The Chain of Peace: Do Supply Chain Chokepoints Deter War?
The next war over Taiwan may be deterred not by aircraft carriers or nuclear arsenals, but by a Dutch lithography machine. ASML, headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is the sole manufacturer of the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems required to produce the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without its machines, the most sophisticated foundries on earth — including those of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) — cannot operate. This fact should be at the center of how the United States thinks about deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Currently, it is not.The conventional wisdom holds that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry acts as a “silicon The post The Chain of Peace: Do Supply Chain Chokepoints Deter War? appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026
The 2026 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List
You can tell a lot about a person from what fiction they keep on their nightstand. Once a year, we make the staff, contributing editors, and show hosts of War on the Rocks tell on themselves.Kerry AndersonThe Midnight Library, Matt Haig (2020). Drawing on evergreen themes from books and movies such as Sliding Doors or It’s a Wonderful Life, The Midnight Library puts a fresh spin on questions like what’s the meaning of life, how does our presence (or absence) in the world affect those around us, what would have happened if we had made different choices, and are there The post The 2026 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List appeared first on War on the Rocks .
August 6, 2026