Catalogue
Scenario archive
Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.
How Trump’s Iran ‘own goal’ is hitting long-term US strategy to contain Chinese influence
The United States has spent decades trying to blunt China’s strategic rise. Yet in the Middle East, sanctions and the war against Iran are now dismantling one of the few assets built to constrain Beijing’s influence in the region. The Iranian port of Chabahar has received strong backing from India, which hoped it would gain both a trade corridor into Afghanistan and Central Asia that bypassed Pakistan and a strategic counterweight to the Chinese-operated Pakistani port of Gwadar. Both Washington...
August 4, 2026
Back from Gironde: France 24's Luke Shrago gives firsthand account of fires
As wildfires continue to ravage southwest France, forcing around 250,000 people from their homes in one of the country's biggest peacetime evacuations, France 24's Luke Shrago has witnessed the crisis unfold firsthand. He joined us to share what he's seen on the ground.
August 4, 2026
Khamenei ties US-Iran peace deal to Israel ending attacks on Lebanon
Iranian supreme leader's intervention comes amid reports of halt to attacks and renewed diplomacy between US and Iran.
August 4, 2026
EQT Raises Takeover Offer for Australia Wealth Manager Perpetual
Perpetual Ltd. has received a sweetened takeover bid from a company operated by Swedish private equity firm EQT AB.
August 4, 2026
Gold Climbs After Pause in Mideast Fighting Cuts Inflation Fears
Gold rose, after a pause in fighting between the US and Iran over the weekend eased oil supply risks and inflationary concerns.
August 4, 2026
Marcos Needs State of the Nation to Revive Philippine Economy, Presidency
A year ago, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s annual address to Congress shocked the nation with revelations of billions of dollars of graft involving flood-control schemes. The disclosure triggered an economic slump as projects slowed and consumers and businesses cut spending.
August 4, 2026
Enemy drone attack leaves 12, including two minors, injured in Russia’s Belgorod
The regional operational headquarters reported a massive drone attack on Belgorod
August 4, 2026
Venezuela opposition leader Machado says she will not take part in US-backed talks
Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize laureate and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said on Sunday she will not take part in US-backed talks with the de facto government of Delcy Rodriguez that are scheduled for August. In a statement co-signed by Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who ran for president in Venezuela’s 2024 elections, Machado said the opposition would “not participate” in the “design, development and operation” of the talks. In mid-July, Rodriguez’s interim government and a group of former...
August 4, 2026
Prosecutors call for Barclays protesters to be sentenced under UK terror laws
The defendants, who are affiliated with Palestine Action, were found guilty last month of criminal damage
August 4, 2026
'I fear for wee families' - home heating oil jumps £100 in three weeks
The Consumer Council for Northern Ireland says the price rise is in direct response to the US-Iran conflict.
August 4, 2026
‘Pretty bad’: Lewis Hamilton hits out at Ferrari after dropping points in F1 title race
Hamilton questions strategy after finishing fifth Briton lost place after penalty for speeding in pit lane Lewis Hamilton expressed frustration with his Ferrari team after he dropped points in the title battle against Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli at the Hungarian Grand Prix, while Lando Norris returned to form with the defending world champion claiming his first race victory of the season . Hamilton finished in fourth place on the track at the Hungaroring but, with a five-second penalty imposed for speeding in the pit lane, he was classified as fifth in the race won by McLaren’s Norris, with Max Verstappen second for Red Bull and Antonelli third. Continue reading...
August 4, 2026
Jackson Koivun holds off Scheffler to win 3M Open in third professional start
US golfer, 21, finished at 25-under par for three-shot win Scheffler closed with 63 to finish second in Minnesota The rookie Jackson Koivun shot a five-under-par 66 to stave off a charging Scottie Scheffler and win on the PGA Tour for the first time at the 3M Open on Sunday at Blaine, Minnesota. Koivun, 21, finished at 25 under for a three-shot victory on Scheffler, who closed with a 63 at TPC Twin Cities. Less than two months ago, Koivun was helping Auburn to its second NCAA championship in a three-year stretch. He demonstrated more poise while playing the final two rounds of his third tournament since turning pro without carding a bogey. Continue reading...
August 4, 2026
Oil Tumbles as US and Iran Pause Military Strikes: Markets Wrap
Oil dropped and US equity futures rose early Monday after the US refrained from striking Iran for a second straight night, easing concerns over disruptions to Middle East crude supplies following weeks of escalating conflict.
August 4, 2026
Real Madrid ready to seal deal for Yan Diomande after PSG pull out of move
PSG formally withdraw from race to sign winger Teenager now expected to complete Bernabéu deal Real Madrid look to have won the race for RB Leipzig’s coveted winger, Yan Diomande, after Paris Saint-Germain withdrew from the bidding war. The Ivory Coast international has been the subject of an intense transfer saga this summer, following a breakout season in the Bundesliga and an impressive World Cup campaign. Continue reading...
August 4, 2026
Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for July 27
Oil dropped as traders assessed Middle East supply risks, with the US pausing strikes against Iran over the weekend, while the Houthis claimed attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia.
August 4, 2026
Two killed as Ukrainian troops launch 30 attacks against settlements in DPR over past day
Fourteen people were injured
August 4, 2026
Trump shares threatening AI-generated images targeting Iran
Trump shares threatening AI-generated images targeting Iran US President Donald Trump on Sunday shared a series of AI-generated images on his social media platform Truth Social, depicting the seizure of an Iranian oil tanker and a strike on Iran's Kharg oil export terminal.
August 4, 2026
Kiwi Will Outpace Euro on Widening Rate Gap, Strategists Say
New Zealand’s dollar is set to rise to the strongest in more than a year against the euro due to expectations the local central bank will outpace its European peer in raising interest rates, according to strategists.
August 4, 2026
What’s causing the unprecedented wildfires in Europe?
France and Spain have deployed thousands of firefighters, and neighbouring countries have sent help.
August 4, 2026
McClements 'got everything perfect' on way to silver medal
Para-swimmer Barry McClements claims a Commonwealth Games silver medal in the men's S9 100m backstroke at Tollcross Swimming Centre.
August 4, 2026
FirstFT: India’s Gen Z protests dent Narendra Modi’s aura of invincibility
Also in today’s newsletter: China pours funding into green energy deals and the US pauses Iran strikes
August 4, 2026
The one voice Hong Kong can’t ignore on ride-hailing? The public
The long-awaited earthquake in Hong Kong’s taxi and ride-hailing scene is almost upon us and the questions are how big the initial shock will be, and how many aftershocks we can expect. The important thing in the coming months will be to keep the focus on protecting the interests of the travelling public. More than a decade after Uber first set up in Hong Kong, operating in a regulatory grey area, the administration is finally moving to overhaul our ride-hailing system. Tech platforms will be...
August 4, 2026
Champagne and Bullets belongs on the Mount Rushmore of bad movies
There's something about a movie like The Room, Troll 2, or Fateful Findings that I find irresistible. These sorts of "so bad they're good" films are marvelous curiosities where ambition far outstrips resources, ability, and self-awareness to become something much greater than the sum of their parts. Champagne and Bullets (also released as GetEven and […]
August 4, 2026
Israeli government nods to international stabilisation force in Gaza
The ISF, to be staffed by 'friendly countries', will operate in areas outside of Israel's military control.
August 4, 2026