Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Three-day mourning declared in Russia's Kirov Region after Ukrainian attack on a plant

Television and radio companies were advised to refrain from broadcasting entertainment content

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Saudi Arabia and Houthis exchange fire as US attacks tanker in Hormuz Strait

US military says it disabled a tanker that was attempting to evade the American blockade on Iranian ports.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

State Security Administration communications chief killed in Russian strike on Kyiv Oblast

Valentyna Savitska, head of the International Cooperation and Strategic Communications Centre at Ukraine's State Security Administration, was killed in a Russian missile strike on Kyiv Oblast on 24 July.

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

Kiev forces lost over 290 troops in Battlegroup North responsibility zone in past 24 hours

A US-made HMMWV armored vehicle, 15 vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and two mortars of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were also destroyed

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Mexico’s Sheinbaum puts faith in petrol price cap

Business leaders wary of president’s interventionist policies

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Nicola Benedetti: ‘A festival should have a tinge of chaos’

The violinist reflects on her journey from teen prodigy to the Edinburgh International Festival — and her mission to make the arts truly inclusive

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

The gig is now the content, and the content is the gig

Delivery drivers are filming their shifts and streaming the results online, turning the app economy into comfort viewing

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

India and South Africa lead push to amass emergency fuel stockpiles

Developing countries forced into rationing during Middle East conflict plan to build or expand official buffers

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Kiev forces lost up to 70 servicemen in Battlegroup Dnepr responsibility zone in a day

Unmanned aerial vehicle units in the grouping's area of responsibility destroyed 15 vehicles and an electronic warfare station

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Putin, Tokayev to participate in Interregional Cooperation Forum in Omsk — Kremlin

The 22nd Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum is currently taking place in Omsk on July 24-25

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

‘Judges should be superhuman’: The invisible burden behind the bench

When conflict erupts, disasters strike or political crises unfold, courts are among the few institutions expected to keep functioning – ensuring the essential rule of law is maintained.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Stocks mixed as oil prices pause climb but yields hover near highs

Global bond yields remain near multi-decade highs as inflation worries persist. Stock markets found scattered relief as oil prices pulled back on Friday. U.S. Treasury yields stayed near their highest levels since 2007 and 2011. Investors anticipate potential interest rate hikes from central banks globally. Major currencies were steady against the dollar, while the yen weakened significantly.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Oil falls on report China pushing for end US-Iran war

Crude oil futures prices experienced a significant drop on Friday. Hopes for renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran emerged. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures saw substantial weekly gains. Shipping disruptions in key waterways contributed to market volatility. Energy markets remain tight and sensitive to developing geopolitical events.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Gold edges up as Brent eases, Mideast developments in focus ahead of Fed meet

Gold prices saw a slight increase on Friday as Brent crude oil retreated from highs. Investors are assessing Middle East conflict developments and their inflation implications. They also await the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. Bullion has seen a correction from record highs earlier this year. Elevated oil prices and rising yields may cap any further recovery.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Stocks waver on Wall Street while crude oil prices fall for the first time in a week

Stocks saw a mixed close on Wall Street as oil prices declined after a week of gains. Major indexes experienced losses for the week due to escalating U.S. conflict with Iran. Investors also faced new tariffs and persistent inflation concerns impacting the economy. Bond yields eased, providing some relief to the stock market's pressure. European markets advanced while Asian markets closed lower on Friday.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

European shares gain as SAP lifts tech stocks; Middle East on watch

European shares saw a rise on Friday, recovering from previous losses. Investors reacted positively to select corporate earnings reports and oil price concerns. Germany's DAX index climbed as SAP's cloud backlog growth exceeded expectations. Higher oil prices did not boost energy stocks due to a drop in Neste's performance. Policymakers indicated potential interest rate hikes amid inflation risks.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Waratahs spoil Fijian Drua party to claim third straight Super Rugby Women’s title

Fijian Drua 17-34 NSW Waratahs as grand final held in Fiji for first time Tahs forward Faliki Pohiva named player of match NSW Waratahs have produced a scintillating performance to complete a hat-trick of Super W rugby titles with a 34-17 win over minor premiers Fijian Drua in Ba, Fiji. The Tahs also secured a record-extending seventh Super W title, with their tighthead prop Faliki Pohiva named player of the final. Continue reading...

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

More banks may join overseas bond run after ICICI’s bumper dollar bond sale

ICICI Bank successfully raised one billion dollars through its inaugural dollar bond sale. This strong investor demand allowed the bank to double its initial offering size. The successful transaction signals confidence in Indian bank credit from global investors. Other lenders are now preparing to raise dollar bonds using a subsidized hedging facility. This initiative aims to lower borrowing costs and support capital inflows into India.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Index entry wait may temper bond rally as FPI inflows start to ease

Indian bond rally may slow as foreign investor flows decrease. The benchmark government bond may trade in a tight range ahead. Higher government borrowing and interest rate uncertainty limit investor enthusiasm. Crude oil prices will remain a key factor dictating yield movements. Treasury gains are expected to be under pressure for banks.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Nifty closes below key 23,800 level on Gulf war ripples

Indian equities experienced a decline on Friday, influenced by rising crude oil prices. The depreciation of the Indian rupee also contributed to investor apprehension during the trading session. Major indices partially recovered from earlier lows, but the Nifty closed below a key support level. This closing position suggests a potential for further downward movement in the market.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

BNP Paribas Cardif to acquire Warburg’s 26% in IndiaFirst Life

BNP Paribas Cardif will re-enter India's life insurance market soon. The French insurer is acquiring Warburg Pincus' stake in IndiaFirst Life. This transaction values the Bank of Baroda-controlled insurer at approximately ten thousand crore rupees. Bank of Baroda will retain its controlling interest and management control. BNP Paribas Cardif will hold twenty-six percent of the insurer's shares.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Rupee hits day’s low against US dollar, recovers on RBI support

The Reserve Bank of India's interventions prevented the rupee from falling to a new record low. State-run banks sold dollars, and foreign investor inflows aided the currency's recovery. High oil prices and importer demand put pressure on the rupee throughout the day. Brent crude prices retreated after topping one hundred dollars a barrel. The rupee closed little changed, recovering from its intraday low.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

‘Show must go on’, Trump tells scaled-back press gala 3 months after assassination attempt

US President Donald Trump told the White House press corps at its annual gala dinner on Friday that “the show must go on”, three months after an earlier attempt was interrupted by an assassination attempt. This time the mood was significantly different. Security was stepped up, far fewer journalists were there, the war against Iran that the mercurial president started with Israel continues and his attacks on the media have become more pronounced. In a speech that lasted almost an hour, Trump...

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

India Flags Attack on LPG Tanker in Iran Waters, Says Crew Safe

India’s embassy in Tehran said it is in close contact with authorities after a liquefied petroleum gas tanker, with 28 Indian crew members onboard, came under attack in Iranian territorial waters on Friday.

August 3, 2026

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