Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 6

Chinese mathematicians awarded the Fields Medal for the first time

Chinese mathematicians awarded the Fields Medal for the first time

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Israeli cities open public shelters amid US-Iran escalation

Israeli cities open public shelters amid US-Iran escalation

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Chinese foreign minister meets Uzbek counterpart

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov on Thursday evening ahead of the Meeting of the Council of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States in Kyrgyzstan.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Chinese foreign minister meets Belarusian counterpart

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov on Thursday ahead of the Meeting of the Council of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States in Kyrgyzstan.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iran army vows to continue strikes as long as country is under attack

Iran army vows to continue strikes as long as country is under attack

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

NHK airs documentary exposing crimes of Japanese military Unit 731

Japan's public broadcaster NHK aired a documentary on Monday, focusing on the wartime crimes of Unit 731, a covert biological warfare unit of the Japanese army during World War II.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Iran says two people injured in US strike on Bandar Abbas

Iran says two people injured in US strike on Bandar Abbas

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

US attack on Iran's Ahvaz kills four

US attack on Iran's Ahvaz kills four At least four were killed and five others wounded following a US missile strike on the outskirts of Ahvaz, in Iran's Khuzestan province.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Elite AI-powered schools insist they provide route to excellence

Long-term effects of incorporating the technology into learning are still unknown, but inequalities are emerging

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Wheat Extends July Rally as War Risks Stoke Fears Over Supply

Wheat resumed its rally after a brief bout of profit-taking, as escalating geopolitical tensions and worsening weather in key producing regions continued to stoke supply concerns.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Monkeying around disrupts Hong Kong MTR services for second day in row

A monkey caused fresh disruption to Hong Kong’s rail services on Friday morning after it was spotted on the tracks in Tsuen Wan station, a day after a similar incident during peak hours. At 10.03am, the MTR Corporation said services on the Tsuen Wan line had to be adjusted after a monkey entered the track area, advising passengers to allow extra time for their journeys. A photo released by the railway operator showed the monkey sitting on the tracks, facing dozens of passengers on the...

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

US launches 13th night of strikes as Iran warns of escalation in the Gulf

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reports from Tehran as the US launches strikes for the 13th consecutive night.

August 3, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Spain declares state of emergency and France seeks EU help as wildfires rage

Wildfires fuelled by extreme heat and strong winds swept across western Europe on Friday, forcing thousands to evacuate in France, triggering a state of emergency in Spain's Madrid region and prompting Paris to seek emergency assistance from the European Union.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Middle East live: US launches new strikes on Iran as oil prices skyrocket

The United States launched a new series of strikes in Iran on Friday, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels opened a second front in the conflict, attacking Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Follow our liveblog for the latest developments.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Iran rejects new US ceasefire proposal — NYT

According to the newspaper, Iranian officials said Tehran was not interested in a temporary deal, which will leave the Strait of Hormuz issue unsolved

August 3, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Typhoon Noul to come closest to Hong Kong late Saturday into Sunday

Typhoon Noul is expected to come closest to Hong Kong between Saturday night and Sunday morning, according to the city’s weather forecaster, which is considering issuing the No 1 warning signal later on Friday. The tropical storm near the Philippines was officially named Typhoon Noul. The name, provided by North Korea, means “glowing crimson skies”. As of Friday morning, Noul was about 500km (310 miles) northeast of Manila and moving northwest at 26km/h (16mph), according to the latest track...

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

HSBC agrees to US$2 billion deal to sell Singapore insurance branch to Allianz

HSBC has agreed to sell its Singapore life and health insurance business to Germany’s Allianz for S$2.7 billion (US$2.08 billion), with the deal expected to be completed in the first half of 2027, HSBC Group announced on Friday morning before the start of trading. The disposal is expected to generate a pre-tax gain of US$1.8 billion and boost HSBC’s common equity tier 1 ratio by up to 15 basis points, the bank said. As part of the deal, HSBC Singapore will enter a 15-year exclusive bancassurance...

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

US completes another wave of strikes on Iran — CENTCOM

According to the statement, the strikes targeted Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

‘There’s no salary’: DRC health workers tell of hardship as Ebola spreads

Health workers in the DRC battle a range of obstacles, from infection risk to angry mob attacks.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Australia ramps up Aukus funding with US$3.2 billion for nuclear submarine yard

Australia said on Friday it would pump an additional US$3.2 billion into building the country’s nuclear-powered submarines, part of a controversial defence pact with the United States and Britain. Under the 2021 Aukus deal, Australia’s most expensive defence project, the country will receive three nuclear-powered submarines from the United States. Australia and Britain will then build a new class of submarine in the 2040s. But the deal has faced scrutiny over whether slow submarine production...

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Gold softens on prospects of Fed rate hikes as Brent tops $100

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, impacted by rising crude oil prices. Inflation concerns and higher interest rate expectations are strengthening the case for rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields reached their highest levels since January 2025. Traders are pricing in an 81% chance of a September rate hike. Other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also saw declines.

August 3, 2026

Economicseverity 7

D-St set for a negative opening as GIFT Nifty signals weak start

Domestic equities extended losses for a fourth consecutive session, with the Nifty declining. Investor sentiment remained fragile amid a sharp surge in Brent crude oil prices. Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 2,999 crore on Wednesday. The rupee traded in a narrow range, appreciating marginally by around 0.05%. Analysts suggest Indian equities are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Mike Waltz pressed over Al Jazeera video during congressional hearing

Ted Lieu challenges UN Ambassador Mike Waltz after playing Al Jazeera footage of Iranian strikes in Jordan.

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

US military says 13th consecutive night of attacks on Iran completed

US military says 13th consecutive night of attacks on Iran completed The US Central Command (Centcom) said it "completed" its latest wave of strikes against Iran for the 13th night in a row. The attacks lasted more than two hours, with Centcom saying it targeted military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities.

August 3, 2026

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