Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 6

Indonesia continues military-technical cooperation with Russia, envoy says

Sergey Tolchenov noted that the cooperation is currently being conducted "behind the scenes"

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Hong Kong’s first-time lawmakers ask fewer questions but attend Legco more often

Hong Kong’s first-time lawmakers have raised fewer questions than their veteran counterparts but recorded a higher attendance rate, a South China Morning Post check has found. Alan Chan Chung-yee, who is also the chief operating officer of Miramar Group, and athlete turned legislator Vivian Kong Man-wai were among those who submitted the fewest questions to the government. Political observers attributed the trend to newcomers seeking to balance respect for the executive-led system with their...

July 31, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Nearly 100 US troops injured in two weeks since Iran war resumed

The Pentagon says most soldiers suffered ‘minor concussions’ and have returned to duty

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Global Stocks Lift Australian Pension Funds to 9.5% Annual Gain

A rally in global equities delivered another strong year for Australia’s A$4.4 trillion ($3.1 trillion) pension fund industry, despite lingering concerns over the Middle East conflict and stubborn inflation.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Iran war live: US launches 10th night of strikes; Tehran attacks Kuwait

Explosions reported in Iran's Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Chabahar and Konarak as US launches new wave of attacks.

July 31, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

US attacks Iran for tenth consecutive night

Washington vows revenge for US military casualties and Iran claims attacks on US sites across the region.

July 31, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Trump imposes 50% US tariffs on some Canadian goods, citing discrimination

Tariffs apply to Canadian wine, hockey sticks, cement, and other products, sparking fears of escalating trade tensions.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Ukrainian forces strike Belgorod, surrounding area with missiles

According to the regional emergency operations center, no casualties are reported

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

India's private banks draw thinner margins on tepid credit growth

Top private sector banks reported weaker net interest margins (NIMs) in the June quarter as sluggish retail loan demand pushed them towards lower-yielding corporate loans. HDFC Bank's NIM fell to 3.26%, Kotak Mahindra Bank's dropped to a 19-quarter low of 4.53%, while Axis Bank's stood at 3.46%.

July 31, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Rupee hits two-month low despite RBI intervention as crude oil surge weighs

The Indian rupee fell to a two-month low against the dollar on Monday. This decline occurred despite significant interventions by the central bank. Rising crude oil prices are fueling inflation concerns across the economy. The market anticipates continued volatility influenced by oil and dollar strength. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to intervene further to support the rupee.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Indian banks mobilise $20.7 billion under RBI's special incentive window

In a remarkable financial boost, India's central bank recorded significant foreign exchange inflows of $20.72 billion, primarily through a swap facility provided by the Reserve Bank of India. Out of this amount, Foreign Currency Non-Resident Deposits accounted for $17.41 billion. Meanwhile, External Commercial Borrowings contributed $1.34 billion, and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings brought in an additional $1.97 billion, enhancing the country’s economic standing.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

MSF demands Israel release detained Palestinian healthcare workers

The NGO is 'outraged' by Israel's treatment of the health professionals and warns that 'silence has become complicity'.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

JPMorgan Chase boss warns Andy Burnham of ‘consequences’ if he taxes banks

Jamie Dimon says any tax raid by new UK prime minister would threaten bank’s planned £3bn London office

July 31, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Gold Steady as Traders Watch Middle East War for Inflation Clues

Gold was steady as traders monitored a raft of developments in the Middle East conflict for clues on the energy price impact on inflation.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

2026 World Cup: La Roja celebrates title with victory parade in Madrid

More than one million people took to the streets of Madrid to welcome La Roja after their World Cup triumph. 🇪🇸

July 31, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

Russian envoy says Coalition of Willing exercises in Poland will be symbolic show

Andrey Kelin also claimed that he does not think the upcoming military drills will turn into anything large-scale

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Argentina, minus Messi, return home after World Cup final heartbreak

Thousands wait to greet the team, who return without captain Messi and a few other players after the World Cup.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Suspect charged in fatal attack on UK politician Ann Widdecombe

Police say a possible political motive is under investigation in the killing of the Reform UK figure.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Tanker hit off the coast of Oman, UK maritime agency says

Tanker hit off the coast of Oman, UK maritime agency says An unknown projectile struck a tanker eight nautical miles north east of Oman's Limah, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said. According to the statement, the UKMTO said it "received multiple reports that a tanker... has been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz".

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ex-Villa striker Duran joins seventh club aged 22

Former Aston Villa striker Jhon Duran joins Benfica on a season-long loan from Saudi Arabian side Al-Nassr.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Judge halts Paramount's $111B purchase of Warner Bros. in win for US states

Judge grants restraining order, saying merger "likely to violate antitrust laws."

July 31, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Firefighting drones in the works as wildfires plague US nearly year-round

California and XPRIZE competition tests whether drones can stop wildfires early.

July 31, 2026

Economicseverity 7

New Zealand Inflation Accelerates to 4.1% on Soaring Fuel Costs

New Zealand’s annual inflation accelerated to the highest level in more than two years in the second quarter, fanned by soaring fuel prices and reinforcing the Reserve Bank’s decision to begin raising interest rates.

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

IRGC says it carried out missile strike on US base in Kuwait

American HIMARS systems were targeted with surface-to-surface missiles

July 31, 2026

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