Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Militaryseverity 6

Russia’s 201st military base in Tajikistan holds anti-terror drills

According to the Central Military District, special attention was paid to countering unmanned aerial vehicles

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Turkish Shipowners Association deems level of risk in Black Sea unacceptable

In recent months, 136 attacks on merchant vessels have taken place in the Black Sea

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

⚽World Cup 2026: Donald Trump tries to steal the spotlight from Spain

🏆🇪🇸 After Spain’s World Cup 2026 victory over #Argentina, Donald Trump appeared determined to stay in the spotlight during the trophy presentation, with #FIFA President Gianni #Infantino stepping in so the champions could take centre stage. 🎤

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 7

World Cup 2026: Israel loves Argentina but do Argentinians actually love them back?

World Cup 2026: Israel loves Argentina but do Argentinians actually love them back? Submitted by MEE staff on Mon, 07/20/2026 - 12:32 President Javier Milei has tied his country closely to Israel, but polling shows most people in the country reject the relationship Argentina's President Javier Milei (centre) visits the Western Wall in the old city of Jerusalem, 19 April 2026 (Ilia Yefimovich/AFP) Off Hours before Argentina faced Spain in the World Cup final, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message to President Javier Milei. "Javier [Milei], you are a real friend, a great friend. We support you, we support Argentina, in so many ways." Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 soon afterwards, but the match had already taken on a political meaning far beyond its footballing context. Across social media, many framed Argentina as Israel’s team and Spain as Palestine’s . The symbolism was not difficult to understand. Milei has made support for Israel a defining feature of Argentina’s foreign policy. He has backed Netanyahu throughout the Gaza genocide , spoken publicly about converting to Judaism and pledged to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem. Spain has moved in the opposite direction. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has condemned Israel’s genocide in Gaza, called for those responsible to face arrest and recognised the State of Palestine in 2024. Even the teams’ biggest stars became part of the contrast. Lionel Messi has drawn scrutiny over his previous links with Israel, while Spain’s Lamine Yamal displayed a Palestinian flag after Barcelona won the league title. ‘Every patriotic Israeli supports Argentina’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during Israel’s assault on Gaza, was not the only Israeli politician to support Argentina. Israeli ministers throughout his cabinet have also eagerly sought to push that comparison. Argentina’s ambassador to Israel, Rabbi Shimon Axel Wahnish, visited far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich before the final and presented him with an Argentina shirt and an official World Cup ball. View on Instagram The ICC prosecutor has also reportedly requested an arrest warrant for Smotrich over war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. "Every patriotic Israeli supports Argentina. Go Argentina!" Smotrich said. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir joined in: "We will love those who love Israel. Let's go, Argentina.” Transport Minister Miri Regev wrote: "Congratulations to the Argentine people and my friend President Milei. Fingers crossed for you in the final!" Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, had also publicly celebrated Argentina’s victories. But does Argentina love Israel? Israel’s embrace of Argentina arguably says more about Milei than it does about Argentina. After the semi-final victory over England, one supporter rejected the idea that the national team represented Israel’s political camp. “No Argentinian that is a real Argentinian supports Israel,” she said in a widely circulated video. “Don’t believe our fucking president that has been put with money there.” A Pew Research Centre survey conducted between 8 February and 13 May 2026 found that 55 percent of Argentinians held a very or somewhat unfavourable view of Israel. Only 21 percent viewed it favourably. World Cup 2026: Palestinian flags become a target at US-based games Read More » Netanyahu himself made clear that Israel’s support rested on Milei rather than the country as a whole. "They have a president who's a superstar... Milei is a huge friend of Israel," he said on Ben Ben Baruch's podcast. Speaking to Argentina’s ambassador, Netanyahu added: "I don't hide the fact that I'm an Argentina fan. Most Israelis are Argentina fans, because President Milei has revolutionised Argentina's relations with us. We have no greater or better friend." That transformation has been dramatic. Argentina recognised Palestinian statehood in 2010 under former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Meanwhile, Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” who took office in December 2023, has since pulled the country into Netanyahu’s orbit and made support for Israel central to his international identity. The contrast also revives memories of Diego Maradona. Unlike Messi, the late Argentine football icon spoke openly about Palestine and met Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas during the 2018 World Cup. “In my heart, I am Palestinian,” Maradona said. World Cup 2026 News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

UK consulate in Palestine account suspended on X

UK consulate in Palestine account suspended on X Submitted by Rayhan Uddin on Mon, 07/20/2026 - 13:05 Hours before suspension, British mission in Jerusalem posted thread criticising Israel’s use of administrative detention against Palestinians Protesters wave Palestinian flags as they stand in front Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the clock's bell 'Big Ben', in central London, on 8 June 2024 (AFP/Justin Tallis) Off The British consulate in Jerusalem, which represents the UK government in occupied Palestine , had its account on X suspended on Sunday. As of Monday, the @UKinJerusalem account remains down, prompting the text “Account suspend” and “X suspends accounts which violate the X Rules”. It was not immediately clear why the account was suspended or which rules were violated. Middle East Eye has reached out to X and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office for comment. According to its website, the consulate works on “political, commercial, security and economic interests between the UK and Palestine”. It also says it provides consular assistance to British nationals in occupied East Jerusalem, the occupied West Bank and Gaza. On Sunday, hours before the account was suspended, the consulate posted a thread on X, jointly with several other diplomatic missions, criticising Israel’s use of administrative detention against Palestinians. Israel advances crocodile plan to stop Palestinian prisoners escaping Read More » “Over 9,000 Palestinians are detained in Israeli prisons, including thousands held without charge or trial,” the consulate wrote on X. “Human rights organisations describe prison conditions for Palestinians as severe and life-threatening, citing inadequate food, denial of medical care and systematic abuse. We are deeply concerned by reports regarding the deterioration of Dr Abu Safiyah’s health.” Hussam Abu Safiyah, a Palestinian paediatrician and director of Gaza’s Kamal Adwan Hospital, was abducted by Israeli forces on 27 December 2024 and has been held without charge or trial since then. “Detainees have the right to be informed about the charges underlying any detention, must be granted access to legal assistance, and be subject to a fair trial,” the British consulate said. “We call upon Israel to uphold its human rights obligation towards detainees under international law, including by granting the ICRC immediate action to all detention facilities.” Israel's genocide in Gaza News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Is China building a bigger support ship for its future Type 004 carrier battle group?

China appears to be developing one of its largest fast combat-support ships for the future long-range operations of its Type 004 aircraft carrier, which is still under construction. Commercial satellite imagery captured on July 2, provided by Planet Labs and published by defence news outlet TWZ, shows construction progress at the Comec Longxue shipyard near Guangzhou and reveals fresh details of the vessel’s layout. The images offer insight into how Beijing plans to keep future strike groups...

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Yemen’s Houthi rebels threaten blockade against Saudi Arabia

Renewed fighting puts kingdom’s crude exports through Red Sea at risk

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire between Iran, US — agency

It is expected that options for restoring the temporary agreement will be discussed

July 31, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

DRC's neighbors boost preparedness as Ebola cases surge

Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia are strengthening border screening, disease surveillance and emergency response measures. The growing Ebola outbreak in the DRC is raising concerns about cross-border spread.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Iran fails to damage Bahrain's air navigation system with drones — agency

The attack did not affect its operations, the Kingdom's Civil Aviation Authority said

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Russian strike on ship near Odesa kills 10, Ukraine hits Moscow with drones

Ukraine launches hundreds of drones towards Moscow a day after Russia unleashed a massive barrage of ballistic missiles.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Watch the BBC's closing World Cup montage

Watch the closing montage of the BBC's coverage of the 2026 Fifa World Cup featuring all the highs, lows and colour from the biggest World Cup ever.

July 31, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

DRC neighbors boost preparedness as Ebola cases surge

Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia are strengthening border screening, disease surveillance and emergency response measures. The growing Ebola outbreak in the DRC is raising concerns about cross-border spread.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Over 400 events held during Cross Years of Russian, Chinese Culture — deputy PM

The years 2026 and 2027 have been declared the Years of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the area of education

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Argentina fans throw stones at police after World Cup defeat

Argentina fans throw stones at police after World Cup defeat

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

India’s Rohit Sharma ends retirement talk as World Cup 2027 still in sight

Rohit struck 138 off 110 balls in defeat by England in third ODI, which some speculated could be his last for India.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Why are thousands of people protesting in Delhi?

Thousands of mostly young people have marched on India's parliament to demand changes to how the education system is run.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Sex, beds and grisly executions: what Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey changed, invented – and left out

From missing scenes and characters to a brand new ending, the director has taken some artistic liberties with Homer’s epic poem Turning a 12,000-line poem that takes a day to read aloud into a three-hour film was always going to require some pruning. So it has proved with Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey , which dispenses with a number of scenes and characters from Homer’s ancient Greek epic. The director has also changed the emphasis in some of the story’s most famous episodes and made a few of his own additions. Here we run down the most significant alterations. Continue reading...

July 31, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Iran says it is aware of American tricks

Iran says it is aware of American tricks Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that the US claims it seeks an end to the war while bringing new military equipment to the region, "betting on our intelligence being as limited as their IQ." "We've reached master-level proficiency in recognising these American games ... Actions must confirm claims, not contradict them," Ghalibaf said in a post on X.

July 31, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Andy Burnham promises 'new economic and political model' as UK prime minister

Andy Burnham promises 'new economic and political model' as UK prime minister Submitted by Oscar Rickett on Mon, 07/20/2026 - 12:34 Burnham appears to herald break from neoliberalism as he takes over from Keir Starmer Britain's King Charles III poses with incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham, during an audience at Buckingham Palace, London, on 20 July 2026 (Aaron Chown/AFP) Off Andy Burnham has taken over from Keir Starmer as prime minister of the UK , promising to deliver a “new political model and a new economic model” for the country. Speaking to the nation in front of 10 Downing Street on Monday, the former mayor of Manchester said he was “acutely conscious” of the fact that he is the UK’s seventh prime minister since 2016. “It requires my generation of politicians to raise our game and rise to the new challenge,” Burnham, a minister during the New Labour era of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, said. Echoing another former Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn , Burnham said his first instruction as prime minister would be to “end rough sleeping in our country”. “Later this year I will bring forward a new plan for Britain, a 10-year plan laying out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be, wherever we’re coming from, whatever party we support,” Burnham said. “But I can do something to give people some breathing space now, some help with the cost of living. And I will set out some of those measures starting tomorrow, including how we pay for them.” 'Britain took some wrong turns' The new prime minister did not mention foreign policy, except to say that he would address Britain’s cost of living crisis while still honouring the country’s defence “commitment to international partners”. “In the 1980s, Britain took some wrong turns,” Burnham said, as he promised a “new political model and a new economic model”, appearing to outline a break with the neoliberal model brought in by Margaret Thatcher in 1979. 'Political power was centralised, economic power privatised, large parts of the country deindustrialised, and they still haven’t recovered' - Andy Burnham, UK prime minister “Political power was centralised, economic power privatised, large parts of the country deindustrialised, and they still haven’t recovered,” Burnham said. “Many feel as though they’re still in decline, and they don’t have the ability to turn things around.” Thatcher’s Conservative government privatised an array of sectors in the 1980s, including energy, water and social care, ushering in a neoliberal economic model that was largely accepted by the Labour governments Burnham worked for in the first decade of the 21st century. Her rewiring of the economy has had – and was intended to have – profound effects, ripping apart the social democratic consensus that had held in Britain from the end of World War Two. “Economics are the method; the object is to change the heart and soul,” Thatcher said in 1981. Industries including shipbuilding, coal mining, automotive and textiles were also significantly scaled back, and the new prime minister, who is a noted proponent of moving power away from London and spreading it across the country, spoke of reindustrialising the UK. Burnham said that he would “build a new economy where we put life’s essentials back under stronger public control to make them affordable to you again”, but stopped short of saying he would nationalise key industries. The new prime minister promised to build more council homes and to begin announcing “some measures” to address the cost of living crisis on Tuesday. Starmer bows out Earlier in the day, in his last speech as prime minister, Keir Starmer once again sketched out the narrative he has settled on in recent weeks. He took over the Labour Party after the election defeat of 2019 and, he said, changed it “so it was fit to face the country and won a landslide victory in 2024”. Once Keir Starmer had beaten the left, he had no plan for government Read More » He did not, as he has previously done, falsely claim that Labour under his predecessor Corbyn had been found “institutionally antisemitic”. Now, after two years in the job, “our public services are on the up”, Starmer said, “children are being lifted out of poverty”, and “immigration is down significantly”. “It has been the privilege of my life to serve this great country,” Starmer said. He had offered the “brave people of Ukraine” his “unflinching support”. As Starmer says it now, Burnham’s ascent is a peaceful handover, a transition of power that was almost pre-ordained. “I wish him every success,” Starmer said of Burnham. “He has my full support.” UK Politics News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Teen dies during Spain World Cup celebrations

A teenager died and several people were injured during celebrations of Spain’s victory in the World Cup after a fountain collapsed in western Spain, local authorities and media said on Monday. “The city hall of Ciudad Rodrigo expresses its sadness and presents its condolences for the death of a boy of 13,” the municipality said in a Facebook post. “What should have been a celebration of Spain’s team in the football World Cup turned into tragedy,” it said, adding that several others were...

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Yemen’s Houthis declare naval blockade of Saudi Arabia — spokesperson

The statement points out that the movement reserves the right to pursue "an all-out escalation" in response to Riyadh’s actions

July 31, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Poland to discuss threat of Russian provocation using intercepted Ukrainian drones

The Polish government's security committee is set to discuss the risk of a Russian provocation involving Ukrainian attack drones that have fallen into Russian hands relatively intact.

July 31, 2026

Socialseverity 6

More than 80 people injured in Spain during celebration of World Cup victory

According to EFE, two people died, including a 13-year-old teenager

July 31, 2026

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