Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 6

How far will Iran go for the Strait of Hormuz?

After years of stand-off over Tehran’s nuclear programme, the waterway is now at the heart of the regime’s confrontation with the US

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Why Iran is returning to war

Its rulers believe that further escalation will force the US to offer the security and economic relief it craves

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Five bridges targeted by US strikes in Iran’s Bandar-e Imam Khomeyni — Fars

Earlier reports said seven people were killed and nine wounded by US strikes on the city

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Which players are favourites to be FIFA World Cup 2026 award winners?

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe are among the biggest stars expected to walk away with at least one individual award.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Qatari air defenses repel missile attack

"The Defense Ministry of Qatar announces that the armed forces have repelled a missile attack on the State of Qatar," the Arab country’s defense ministry said

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

US military boards tanker in Gulf of Oman for inspection — CENTCOM

"US Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit conduct a verification boarding aboard M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman, July 16," the US Central Command said

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Dense smoke from Canadian wildfires blankets New York

Visibility has dropped to a few hundred meters

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Seven killed in US attack on Iran’s Bandar-e Imam Khomeyni — Fars

The wounded are now receiving medical assistance

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Hong Kong taxi driver dies after crashing into railing in Tsuen Wan

A Hong Kong taxi driver has died after his vehicle crashed into a railing in Tsuen Wan. According to police, the accident happened at 11.45pm on Thursday on Ma Tau Pa Road, when the cabby reportedly lost control of his vehicle and drove into a railing while travelling towards Tsuen Wan Riviera Park. Emergency responders arrived at the scene and found the driver unconscious, with no apparent external injuries. He was rushed to Yan Chai Hospital in Tsuen Wan, where he was pronounced dead at 1.06am...

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

IEA chief warns Strait of Hormuz crisis threatens global energy security

Fatih Birol says 'oil security is still a critical issue' and world should be 'worried' if situation does not improve.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

China holds Global Mayors Dialogue 2026 for green cooperation

China holds Global Mayors Dialogue 2026 for green cooperation

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

South Africa dismisses misinformation campaign over migration protests

South Africa has dismissed what it describes as a misinformation campaign portraying the country as isolated from the rest of Africa following recent protests over illegal migration.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

US launches new strikes on Iran as military costs soar toward $100 bln

US launches new strikes on Iran as military costs soar toward $100 bln

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Chords and carnivals: The everyday stories behind China's ethnic unity

More than a sporting event, "Dian Chao" offers a glimpse into how ethnic unity is experienced in everyday life – through shared participation, cultural expression and a sense of belonging.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Xi Jinping meets Kazakh president

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Shanghai.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Kuwait, Bahrain say air defenses intercept new Iranian drone attacks

Kuwait's armed forces said on Thursday that the country's air defense systems were responding to hostile drones, urging the public to follow safety instructions issued by the relevant authorities.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Wang Huning attends China-DPRK treaty's 65th anniversary reception

China's top political advisor, Wang Huning, and Pak Thae Song, premier of the Cabinet of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), each delivered a speech at a reception commemorating the 65th anniversary of the signing of the China-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance in Pyongyang on Thursday.

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Nigeria issues flood alert for 14 states as heavy rains intensify

Nigerian authorities have issued a flood alert for 14 states, warning residents and local governments to prepare for possible flooding as heavy rains continue to batter parts of the country.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Trump suggests Putin ready for Ukraine peace deal

US President Donald Trump said once again he believes Russia is ready to reach an agreement to end the conflict with Ukraine, according to media reports on Wednesday, while fighting continued across the front line with both sides reporting large-scale drone operations and Europe moved to further strengthen military support for Kiev.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Japan-Philippines military tie-up: Who fuels South China Sea tensions

Japan's involvement in South China Sea affairs has shifted from diplomatic statements and capacity-building to a more operational and institutionalized military arrangement.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

China viewed more favorably than US, Pew survey finds

A newly released Pew Research Center survey revealed that China now boasts more favorable global perceptions than the United States across a wide range of countries.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Global mayors advance vision for green, inclusive urban development

City leaders from around the world gathered in Xishuangbanna, southwest China's Yunnan Province, from July 14 to 16 for the 2026 Global Mayors Dialogue, where they exchanged views on sustainable urban development and called for deeper cooperation in promoting harmony between urban growth and ecological conservation.

July 29, 2026

Economicseverity 7

‘Gateway to Asean’: South Korea bets on Vietnam hub for food expansion

South Korean food exporters are no longer treating Vietnam as just another market for kimchi, instant noodles and premium fruit. As Southeast Asia emerges as one of South Korea’s most important trading regions, Seoul is positioning Vietnam as a logistics and distribution base for a wider push to turn the popularity of Korean culture into sustained demand for Korean food across the region. But analysts said the strategy would depend on more than Hallyu-driven curiosity, with exporters needing to...

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Iranian sources say US strikes hit civilian infrastructure

Iranian social media accounts, and local sources allege that US strikes caused casualties and hit infrastructure.

July 29, 2026

488 / 1145