Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 6

Why Africa might back controversial Fifa plan

Fifa's plan sell stakes in its competitions to private investors has been heavily criticised, but the body running African football is yet to take a side.

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iraq to strengthen air defence, readiness after US-Saudi strikes

Iraq to strengthen air defence, readiness after US-Saudi strikes Iraq has ordered that its air defences and intelligence activities be bolstered, a government spokesperson said Friday, after US-Saudi strikes on militants accused of launching attacks in the region. Spokesman Sabah al-Numan said that PM Ali al-Zaidi "issued strict and immediate orders... to raise alertness and readiness to the maximum across all camps and bases, particularly at the official bases of the armed forces and the Hashed al-Shaabi". Rebuilding and modernising air defence capabilities is a "top priority", Numan said, adding that this includes accelerating plans to equip and arm modern radar, early-detection, and air defence systems. On Wednesday, deadly US-Saudi strikes hit bases belonging to the Hashed al-Shaabi - an armed Iraqi alliance that has been integrated into the armed forces but also includes powerful groups known for acting unilaterally.

August 9, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

US says Strait of Hormuz ‘remains open’

US says Strait of Hormuz ‘remains open’ The US military says the Iranian government’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is closed is “false”. “The Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial vessel transit. Iran does not control it. Thousands of ships have sailed through the international waterway over the past four months,” the US military’s Central Command said in a post on X. Earlier, Iran said it had stopped two vessels seeking to exit the Strait of Hormuz and added that four other tankers were turned back after its forces intervened. 🚫 CLAIM: Once again, the Iranian government claims it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is FALSE. ✅ FACT: The Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial vessel transit. Iran does not control it. Thousands of ships have sailed through the international waterway over the… pic.twitter.com/sdDJ08MLHo — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 31, 2026

August 9, 2026

Socialseverity 6

FIFA COO Lamour says staff deceived over Infantino’s World Cup plan

Senior FIFA executive, Kevin Lamour, says staff were deceived over President Gianni Infantino's World Cup sell-off plan.

August 9, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Israeli military cracks down on West Bank village as settlers march in

Israeli military cracks down on West Bank village as settlers march in Israeli forces shot and wounded at least one Palestinian, arrested at least three, and closed entrances to the village of Tal in the occupied West Bank on Friday as more than 100 Israeli settlers marched towards the village, residents said. A settler attack last weekend had left four Palestinians and two Israelis dead, an incident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government characterised as terrorism - although video later emerged showing armed settlers shoving Palestinians. The Palestinian villagers say they were defending themselves against settler attacks that aim to drive them off the land, the latest in a three-year surge of such violence in the West Bank. Since last Friday, the Israeli military has carried out near-daily raids and arrests in Tal, which is near Nablus in the northern West Bank - where most countries and UN bodies consider Israeli settlements illegal.

August 9, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Muni Market Has Worst July Since 2003, Veering From Typical Summer Pattern

US state and local government debt is on track to notch its weakest July in more than two decades, as rising benchmark Treasury yields and a flood of new issuance take a toll on what usually is one of the strongest months for the $4 trillion market.

August 9, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

DR Congo Ebola epidemic becomes world’s second largest outbreak

Officials declare the outbreak the fastest spreading ever, warning the world to 'pay much more attention'.

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Western allies warn North Korean IT workers funding nuclear arsenal

Pyongyang accused of using hard currency earned by AI-assisted workers to power armaments programme.

August 9, 2026

Socialseverity 6

More on the Fed’s New Game of Monetary Policy Football

Revisiting the Maradona theory of interest rates.

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ex - Minister packt aus : Musste Lügendetektortests anordnen

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Втори американски самолет цистерна кацна в Безмер

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Заявления о потерях ВСУ вызвали новые вопросы

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Nga lật bài ngửa : Một số bên có thể phải trả giá bằng 4 . 500 km² lãnh thổ

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

La Nación / Confirman la muerte de otro paraguayo en la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

الوزير الأول للناقلين : أرواح المسافرين أمانة في أعناقكم – النهار أونلاين

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Падіння російської Х - 101 у Польщі демонструє безрозсудну політику Путіна – ISW

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

tayyar . org - شو الوضع ؟ حرب الإبادة الإسرائيلية مستمرة في الجنوب من دون رادع ... لقاء حماية لبنان ركيزة لجهد لبناني مستقبلي

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Palästinensische Ortschaften : Palästinenser bei Marsch israelischer Siedler durchs Westjordanland angeschossen

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Първият US военен самолет цистерна кацна в авиобаза Безмер

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

حادث بومرداس .. وزير الداخلية يزور المصابين بالمستشفيات – النهار أونلاين

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Зеленский попросил Трампа разрешить использование Starlink для ударов по пусковым установкам РФ - СМИ

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ukraine - Krieg im Liveticker : +++ 17 : 33 Russland warnt vor Blockade seiner Getreide - Exporte +++

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Αβέβαιη η στάση του Τραμπ για την παραγωγή Patriot στην Ουκρανία – « Να είμαστε προσεκτικοί σε ποιον δίνουμε άδεια »

August 9, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Asia Intelligence Brief July 31 : Hopes Dashed , Shields Up

August 9, 2026

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