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The US Seeks a Verifiable Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Development Scenarios

J.D. Vance's statement on the need for a verifiable agreement on Iran's nuclear program triggers three scenarios: escalation (50%), status quo (37.5%), and de-escalation (12.5%). The analysis focuses on sanctions, proxy conflicts, and negotiations over a 10–14 day horizon.

# The US Seeks a Verifiable Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Development Scenarios

J.D. Vance's statement on the need for a verifiable agreement on Iran's nuclear program triggers three scenarios: escalation (50%), status quo (37.5%), and de-escalation (12.5%). The analysis focuses on sanctions, proxy conflicts, and negotiations over a 10–14 day horizon.

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