← Scenarios catalogue
Economic··Severity 7

China Is Exporting 20% Fewer Magnets to US Despite Trade Truce

China’s shipments of rare-earth magnets to the US remain well below pre-trade war levels despite last year’s truce, underscoring concerns in the Trump administration about Beijing’s adherence to that agreement.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Checking access status…