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Social··Severity 7

US and Saudi Arabia reach a multi-billion dollar civilian nuclear deal

The United States announced that it had reached a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia. Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed the pact and a separate bilateral safeguards deal alongside Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. There have been years of discussions even under the Biden administration as part of a larger deal where Saudi Arabia would normalise relations with Israel. That fell apart after the October 7th attacks. There's likely to be pushback from allies and those concerned with safety.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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45%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

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