Ukraine, Russia to pore over memoranda exchanged at talks — Foreign Ministry

"As agreed on May 16, the Russian side handed over to the Ukrainian delegation a detailed two-part memorandum outlining its position on ways to achieve long-term peace and a possible full-fledged ceasefire," Maria Zakharova said A: Escalation (model probability 30%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange information about the memoranda, escalating tensions with increased military activity near the border. Russia deploys additional troops to Belarus, while Ukrainian forces conduct joint exercises with NATO allies. These actions lead to heightened international concern and diplomatic pressure from Western powers. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased frequency of Russian military drills near Ukraine's borders (e.g., live-fire exercises), observed by independent observers; 2) NATO members increase troop deployments in Eastern Europe, confirmed through official statements. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The two parties engage in further negotiations, but no significant breakthroughs are made. Both sides remain committed to th B: Status Quo (model probability 51%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange information about the memoranda, escalating tensions with increased military activity near the border. Russia deploys additional troops to Belarus, while Ukrainian forces conduct joint exercises with NATO allies. These actions lead to heightened international concern and diplomatic pressure from Western powers. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased frequency of Russian military drills near Ukraine's borders (e.g., live-fire exercises), observed by independent observers; 2) NATO members increase troop deployments in Eastern Europe, confirmed through official statements. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The two parties engage in further negotiations, but no significant breakthroughs are made. Both sides remain committed to th C: De-escalation (model probability 19%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange information about the memoranda, escalating tensions with increased military activity near the border. Russia deploys additional troops to Belarus, while Ukrainian forces conduct joint exercises with NATO allies. These actions lead to heightened international concern and diplomatic pressure from Western powers. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased frequency of Russian military drills near Ukraine's borders (e.g., live-fire exercises), observed by independent observers; 2) NATO members increase troop deployments in Eastern Europe, confirmed through official statements. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The two parties engage in further negotiations, but no significant breakthroughs are made. Both sides remain committed to th

Ukraine, Russia to pore over memoranda exchanged at talks — Foreign Ministry

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation