← Scenarios catalogue
Military··Severity 8

Hamas says it will 'disarm when Israel keeps its word'

Hamas says it will 'disarm when Israel keeps its word' An unpublished Gaza disarmament agreement obtained by Middle East Eye would place Palestinian weapons under the control of a transitional Palestinian authority, rather than surrendering them to Israel or an international force. Hamas said on Friday that any agreement on the “complete disarmament” of Palestinian factions in Gaza depends on Washington and Israel honouring commitments made under last year’s ceasefire. The statement followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US-led Board of Peace had secured an agreement to disarm Hamas and every other armed group in Gaza. MEE has obtained a copy of the 15-point agreement Trump alluded to but which Israel has yet to acknowledge publicly. Read more: Hamas says it will 'disarm when Israel keeps its word' Israeli tanks and troops deployed near the boundary with Gaza on 10 June (Jack Guez/AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

60%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Checking access status…