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Economic··Severity 7

North Korea’s Economy Expands on Russia Arms Deals, China Trade

North Korea’s economy expanded for a third straight year in 2025, boosted by arms exports to Russia, stronger trade with China, and Kim Jong Un’s drive to develop regional industries, according to estimates by South Korea’s central bank.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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