Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukraine’s Zelensky turns terrorism into ideology of his country — Russian lawmaker
"Zelensky is personally responsible for terrorist attacks that lead to the deaths of civilians," Vyacheslav Volodin said
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
50%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme
B
36%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme
C
14%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme
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