Geopolitical··Severity 6
Iran blames US for Hormuz dispute as both sides confirm ongoing talks
Iran reports no new US strikes overnight into Saturday for the first time in two weeks.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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