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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Armenia's Specters of Peace and War

Pivotal parliamentary elections are coming in June, and Armenia's young democracy faces a stirring test between the ghosts of its history and a hopeful bet on a stable future.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

35%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: RAND

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