Geopolitical··Severity 6
Armenia's Specters of Peace and War
Pivotal parliamentary elections are coming in June, and Armenia's young democracy faces a stirring test between the ghosts of its history and a hopeful bet on a stable future.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: RAND
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