Almost one in three Gaza residents displaced since end of ceasefire — UN

According to the agency, the Israeli army has issued 35 displacement orders since military operations resumed A: Escalation (model probability 67%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's military operations escalate in Gaza following the UN report, with increased shelling and airstrikes targeting civilian infrastructure. Hamas retaliates with rocket fire into Israeli territory, leading to a surge in casualties on both sides. The conflict escalates rapidly, potentially drawing in regional powers like Egypt or Turkey. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of civilian casualties in Gaza, escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, and potential military action by neighboring countries. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days/weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN report is met with a muted response from both sides. Israel continues its operations with the goal of dislodging Hamas, while Hamas maintains its position and retaliates against Israeli targets. Diplomatic B: Status Quo (model probability 24%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's military operations escalate in Gaza following the UN report, with increased shelling and airstrikes targeting civilian infrastructure. Hamas retaliates with rocket fire into Israeli territory, leading to a surge in casualties on both sides. The conflict escalates rapidly, potentially drawing in regional powers like Egypt or Turkey. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of civilian casualties in Gaza, escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, and potential military action by neighboring countries. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days/weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN report is met with a muted response from both sides. Israel continues its operations with the goal of dislodging Hamas, while Hamas maintains its position and retaliates against Israeli targets. Diplomatic C: De-escalation (model probability 9%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's military operations escalate in Gaza following the UN report, with increased shelling and airstrikes targeting civilian infrastructure. Hamas retaliates with rocket fire into Israeli territory, leading to a surge in casualties on both sides. The conflict escalates rapidly, potentially drawing in regional powers like Egypt or Turkey. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of civilian casualties in Gaza, escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, and potential military action by neighboring countries. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days/weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UN report is met with a muted response from both sides. Israel continues its operations with the goal of dislodging Hamas, while Hamas maintains its position and retaliates against Israeli targets. Diplomatic

Almost one in three Gaza residents displaced since end of ceasefire — UN

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation