Geopolitical··Severity 6
DRC faces rising tensions over constitutional referendum
Tensions are rising in DR Congo over plans to introduce a new constitution. The opposition accuses President Tshisekedi of using it to seek a third term but has postponed planned protests following an AU mediation offer.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: DW World
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