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Economic··Severity 7

Russia bans diesel exports in fuel crunch

Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have created petrol and diesel shortages and brought the war home for Russians

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

48%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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