Geopolitical··Severity 8
IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3% but projects rebound in 2027
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year, flagging "uncertainty and risks" brought on by the war in Iran. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez responds to threats from Donald Trump that the US will cut off all trade with his country. And, the heatwave is putting France's power system is under pressure.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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62%Эскалация
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Primary source: France24
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